Race Analysis

It's difficult to say much about the geographic messes that are suburban Philadelphia districts.  This one shed much of Montgomery County, which trended heavily Democratic in the '00s, and instead winds its way through Republican areas of Chester and Berks counties.  Jim Gerlach represented the 6th for a decade in Congress, winning four tough races in a Democratic-leaning district before redistricting finally gave him a district with a Republican lean.

Gerlach announced he would retire in 2014, opening the way for Chester County Commissioner Ryan Costello to claim the Republican nomination.  He’ll face Manan Trivedi, who held Gerlach to 57 percent of the vote in both 2010 and 2012.  Under the old lines, Trivedi would probably have a good shot, but under the new lines, he starts out as an underdog.