Race Analysis

Eastern Ohio is a slice of Appalachia, a district that is older, whiter, and poorer than the country as a whole.  It is also a more conservative version of the district that sent Democrat Charlie Wilson to Congress for two terms (and Ted Strickland to Congress for six terms before that), having been made a few points more Republican in the 2012 redistricting.  Wilson took his 2010 re-election for granted, which was a mistake; he was upended by Bill Johnson in a close race.

Wilson came back for a second try in 2012, but ended up losing by a six-point margin. Former state House Majority Leader Jennifer Garrison provides a credible opponent for 2014, but 2014 looks like a worse year for Democrats than 2012, which doesn’t bode well for Garrison’s chances.