Race Analysis

The suburbs of Chicago have historically been fertile territory for moderate Republicans. So in the post-2010 redistricting, Democrats tried something different: They turned the 11th district into a winding collection of precincts joining together Democratic portions of Joliet, Bolingbrook, and Aurora.

The resulting district was too strongly Democratic for Republican Judy Biggert to win re-election, and Bill Foster – who had won a special election to replace Denny Hastert in a neighboring district in 2008 – won the seat handily.

This D+8 district shouldn’t be competitive (although Barack Obama’s popularity in Illinois probably inflates the district’s apparent partisan tilt). But we can’t ignore polling showing Foster with only a modest lead over state Rep. Darlene Senger. In a huge wave, this could flip, but it isn’t clear we’re heading that way right now.