Race Analysis

For three decades, southeastern Iowa was represented by a mild-mannered Republican congressman named Jim Leach. Notwithstanding the Democratic tilt of the district -- Kerry won 55 percent of the vote in 2004 -- Leach managed to hang on through a number of tough re-election efforts. But 2006 proved to be too much even for a congressman with Leach’s moderate record, and he lost to Dave Loebsack, a professor of international relations at Cornell College.

Loebsack has been a reliably liberal vote, but it didn’t hurt him in 2008 against ophthalmologist Mariannette Miller-Meeks; he cruised to a 57 percent to 39 percent victory, though he ran a few points behind Barack Obama. In 2010, the environment in Iowa was terrible, and Miller-Meeks lost by only two points. Miller-Meeks is back again in what looks to be an environment similar to 2010. Polling shows a close race. Loebsack is the favorite, but there’s real upset potential here.