Race Analysis

9/18/14 -- Democrats had hoped to turn this race into a competitive one, but their gubernatorial candidate has been beset with problems from the outset of his campaign. The latest allegation – that he was found in a parked car with a woman who is not his wife, at a time that he was not in possession of a valid driver’s license – is prompting talk of Democrats abandoning the ticket and focusing on downstate races.

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2006 saw one of the largest gubernatorial blowouts in Ohio gubernatorial history, as Congressman Ted Strickland blew out Republican Secretary of State Ken Blackwell by a 60-37 margin. Blackwell was seen as a rising star by state and national Republicans, but the national Democratic tide, combined with Blackwell’s across-the-board conservatism, led to a huge defeat in this swing state.

But Strickland’s tenure as governor was turbulent, as the state shed both jobs and population. He lost in 2010 -- albeit by a narrow margin -- to former congressman John Kasich, who had been employed as a partner at Lehman Brothers, the investment firm whose collapse precipitated the financial system collapse of 2008.

Kasich’s term likewise got off to a rocky start, as his attempts to weaken public employee labor unions was roundly rejected by Ohio voters in a referendum. But his approval ratings rebounded somewhat, while Democratic nominee Ed FitzGerald, the Cuyahoga (Cleveland) County executive, saw his campaign get off to a rough start as well. Kasich maintains a solid lead in the polls, but has never really cracked the 50 percent mark. This is a competitive race, but Kasich has the edge.