Race Analysis

11/3/14 -- Deal has what could be a bit of a breakout here, with a poll finally showing him over 50 percent. He may well avoid a runoff, although the smart money still suggests that this will be decided in December.

10/19/14 -- Deal continues to hold a narrow lead over Carter. Neither candidate appears to be close to the 50 percent threshold needed to avoid a runoff.

10/7/14 -- Deal has a small lead, but Carter seems range-bound. There’s no doubt a Democrat in Georgia can win 43 to 44 percent of the vote. The question is how that Democrat can get to 50 percent plus one in a runoff.

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From Jan. 12, 1872 through Jan. 12, 2003, Georgia had nothing but Democratic governors. The state didn’t have a Republican base, and Democratic primaries were usually decided on a friends-and-neighbors basis, rather than on the basis of ideological or geographical splits, so the Republican Party had to be built from scratch. And so, the GOP grew in urban Atlanta, spread to suburban Atlanta, and only in 2002 broke through to the rural reaches of the state.

That year, Sonny Perdue ousted Roy Barnes, who had been mentioned as a possible presidential contender. Perdue was term-limited in 2010, and both Republicans and Democrats had high-profile fights for the nomination. On the Republican side, former Secretary of State Karen Handel lost narrowly to Congressman Nathan Deal. On the Democratic side, former Gov. Barnes tried to make a comeback attempt.

Polls showed a close race, but Barnes ultimately proved incapable of expanding his base of support past the 43 percent mark he managed to achieve in the polls. Deal has had some problems as governor, and polls now show a close race against state Sen. Jason Carter, grandson of the former president. But once again, the question is whether Carter can expand beyond the 42 percent of the vote that a Democrat can typically count on in the state as a minimum.