Race Analysis

10/28/14 -- Polling here has been surprisingly light, but what we have is still consistent with a very close race.

10/19/14 -- The race remains close, although after the now-infamous "fan" debate between Crist and Scott, that might not last.

10/7/14 -- Crist has bounced back in recent polling, and now holds a slight edge in the RCP Average. The high number of undecided voters speaks to the opinion of the electorate on the two candidates.

----------Race Preview----------

The 2014 Florida gubernatorial race is possibly the last aftershock of the raucous 2010 Florida elections. When popular Gov. Charlie Crist decided to run for the Senate, it set off a stampede of aspirants for the governor's mansion. Attorney General Bill McCollum was the Republican pick, and he quickly moved out to a lead in the polls over Democratic nominee Alex Sink. But health care executive Rick Scott spent freely in the Republican primary, edging McCollum despite revelations of criminal investigations into Columbia/HCA, the company Scott used to head. Scott then narrowly won the governor’s race over Sink in the fall.

Scott has never been particularly popular, and was initially marked as one of the most vulnerable GOP incumbents in the country. He then drew a top-flight opponent in Crist. Crist had abandoned the Republican Party to run as an Independent when it became clear that he would lose the 2010 Republican Senate primary to Marco Rubio. He subsequently joined the Democrats. But Crist’s initial lead has melted away, and Scott now leads in most polls.