Race Analysis

10/19/14 -- A few polls have shown Hutchinson with a narrow lead, but that's perfectly consistent with the modest lead the polls show overall.

10/1/14 -- Hutchinson has opened up a reasonably steady lead in the polls, and has to be considered a (very) modest favorite at this point.

----------Race Preview----------

The ascent of the Republican Party in most Southern states usually involved some combination of three factors: A vestigial GOP left over from Reconstruction, which provided a base of support; a split in the Democratic Party between conservatives and populists; and a booming metropolis that attracted Northern Republicans southward. States with all three factors present realigned early (Virginia, Texas) while states with fewer factors took longer to fully realign (Georgia, Alabama).

Arkansas is a somewhat unique Southern state. There was a small Republican Party in the Northwest, but there was never a booming metropolis attracting Northerners, and it traditionally didn't have a deep divide between conservatives and populists. The state also produced talented, centrist Democratic politicians who have managed to keep a strong coalition together in the state. As a result, Arkansas had the strongest Democratic Party in the South for most of the post-Civil Rights Act elections.

Mike Beebe governed in the tradition of these centrist Arkansas Democrats and insulated himself from the general decline in the fortunes of Democratic governors across the country. But it remains to be seen whether other Democrats in a similar mold can continue to succeed. Former Congressman Mike Ross would have been a natural fit for the state in the pre-Obama era, but Arkansas might have swung too far rightward even for a relatively conservative Democrat like Ross to win. He will match up against former Republican congressman Asa Hutchinson in the fall.