Understanding why is somewhat complicated, but worth the effort. The Congressional Budget Office is required to prepare “baseline projections” that reflect the provisions in current law, some of which are permanent, others which are time-limited. This procedure works reasonably...]]> Thu, 01 Nov 2012 00:00:00 -0500

If President Obama is reelected, his second term will be shaped by the terms of that victory, and by the circumstances he will face the morning after.

In all probability, Obama’s winning margin would be the lowest for the incumbent since 1916—maybe ever. Worse, there is a non-negligible chance that he could win a split decision—a narrow victory in the Electoral College, a narrow defeat in the popular vote. Whatever may have been the case when the Constitution was drafted, majority rule is the core of legitimacy in contemporary political culture. Unless the next few days yield a strong surge toward Obama, he will enter his second term holding a relatively...]]> Thu, 04 Oct 2012 00:00:00 -0500 In elections involving sitting presidents, two questions are key: First, is a majority of the electorate willing to consider replacing the incumbent? If the answer is no (as it was in 1984, for example), there is nothing much that the challenger can do. But if the answer is yes, then the second question becomes decisive: does the challenger represent an acceptable alternative?

Evidence points to three basic facts about the 2012 election: a narrow majority of the population is at least willing to consider replacing President Obama; the condition of the economy is overwhelmingly the most important issue; and as the first presidential debate began, Mitt Romney had not persuaded...]]> Tue, 25 Sep 2012 00:00:00 -0500 Mitt Romney has run a miserable campaign.  If the election were held tomorrow, he would lose—a stunning situation, given our continuing economic woes.  Absent a catastrophe at home or abroad that shifts public perceptions, he has only one opportunity to turn things around—the first presidential debate.  But if the past is any guide, the opening is wider than many now believe.

In 2004, on the eve of the Republican convention, George W. Bush and John Kerry were essentially tied.  On August 30, to be precise, Bush’s support averaged 45.7 percent, Kerry’s, 45.0 percent.  The Democratic convention had failed to give the party’s nominee much of a bounce, and many observers...]]> Sun, 16 Sep 2012 00:00:00 -0500 During the past two weeks, the dynamic of the 2012 presidential election has shifted, and President Obama has moved out to a modest but significant lead against Mitt Romney. No developments in the economy or the world can explain this shift. That leaves the campaigns themselves. And during the past two weeks, Romney’s campaign has revealed itself to be stunningly incompetent.

Let’s start with a key structural feature of the 2012 campaign: Romney’s challenge has always been to keep his distance from the party he is leading—the Republican Party, after all, is farther ideologically from the median voter than is the Democratic Party. And as recently as a few...]]> Fri, 14 Sep 2012 00:00:00 -0500 William Galston - William Galston is the Ezra Zilkha Chair and senior fellow in the Governance Studies Program at the Brookings Institution and College Park Professor at the University of Maryland. From 1993 to 1995 he served as deputy assistant to the president for domestic policy.

As the population ages, the costs -- financial and social -- of long-term care will rise rapidly. We're not prepared for it.

If the Electoral College does come into play, on what will the outcome hinge? As we head toward to Republican convention, here’s a...]]> Sun, 05 Aug 2012 00:00:00 -0500 Republicans should not be surprised if voter laws becomes a major topic of debate this election season—they will be the ones responsible for making it so. Over the past two years, the GOP has made a concerted attempt in a number of states to tighten voter registration procedures, cut back on alternatives such as early voting, and—most controversially—require would-be voters to show state-issued photo IDs as proof of identity. Because there’s such little evidence that these changes are needed to eliminate widespread voter fraud, it’s hard to avoid the conclusion that many Republican legislators want to discourage voting among groups—especially minorities and the poor—that...]]> Wed, 25 Jul 2012 00:00:00 -0500 The emerging conventional wisdom among many Democrats takes the form of two equations: 2012 = 2004, and Bain = Swift Boats. There’s also a supporting narrative: The negative campaign against John Kerry fatally weakened his candidacy, securing the victory of an incumbent who could not have won based on his own record. And so, the idea goes, a president whose performance the public doesn’t much like can power his way to a narrow, less than pretty win by eviscerating his challenger.

But the evidence in favor of all of these propositions is remarkably thin. The basic structure of the 2004 campaign differed fundamentally from the one we’re now enduring. The available...]]> Sat, 14 Jul 2012 00:00:00 -0500 President Obama’s team perhaps once hoped to reenact Ronald Reagan’s triumphant 1984 march to reelection. But it’s now clear that they’re condemned to repeat George W. Bush’s much less inspiring campaign in 2004.

 

The playbook is clear: A barrage of negative advertising to define your opponent before he can define himself; a stream of issues and events to mobilize your base; and a meticulous ground game to squeeze every last vote out of the base come November. As for the small number of voters who haven’t made up their minds already, you don’t try to argue that they’ve never had it better, but rather that the other guy is unacceptable. In the end, you win a...]]> Mon, 18 Jun 2012 00:00:00 -0500 The past month has seen the momentum of the 2012 presidential election shift significantly. The national race is now in a virtual dead heat, and most key swing states are within the margin of error. And most important, it appears that Mitt Romney has expanded the playing field to include some states previously thought to be securely in President Obama’s column—including, in my view, Pennsylvania.

I base these conclusions on an analysis of surveys conducted since the beginning of June. Here’s what they show. (When there are multiple surveys, as there are in most cases, these figures represent averages.)

(For the record: what follows is a purely political analysis, not a critique of Obama’s decision on the merits. Many years ago, after sustained reflection, I decided that there...]]> Fri, 13 Apr 2012 00:00:00 -0500 With the general election now underway, it’s tempting to assume that President Obama has a built-in advantage by having at his disposal a campaign operation that earned universal plaudits in 2008. But as Team Obama itself already knows—or, if not, will soon come to realize—the 2012 contest will be very different from the president’s triumphant march to the White House four years ago. The key question will be how the old campaign staff responds to the new electoral landscape. Here are seven realities that Team Obama will have to adjust to.

Here’s what won’t work. As long...]]> Mon, 05 Mar 2012 00:00:00 -0600 This year’s Super Tuesday will be “super” in the most obvious way: Ten states with a total of 437 delegates will make their decisions on the same day. What will be the upshot of all these contests? Below, a guide to what is likely to happen and how to interpret the results:

Super Tuesday won’t prove decisive. This is true for two reasons.

First, all ten states are using some variant of a proportional system to award delegates. Some are looking to statewide vote totals, while others focus on the results within congressional districts.

For better or worse, an incumbent president’s record is at the heart of his reelection prospects. President Obama cannot run away from his record; he must run on it.